Losing Ground: The Erosion of Biden’s Support Among Black and Hispanic Women

PoliticsJoe Biden

Jun 20

EEW Magazine Online explores the factors contributing to Biden's declining popularity among these vital voting blocs and what it means for his re-election chances.

Written By Renée Harris // EEW Magazine Online

President Joe Biden's chances in the upcoming November election appear uncertain, especially given his declining support among women, a demographic crucial to his success. This trend represents the narrowest advantage for a Democrat since 2004, a significant factor in the election's competitiveness.

Data from over 30 polls, aggregated by The New York Times, reveals that Biden’s lead among women has dwindled to about 8 percentage points, down from 13 points in 2020. Concurrently, former President Donald Trump’s support among men has rebounded, regaining the double-digit lead seen in 2016. Historically, Republicans have often led among male voters, while Democrats have typically secured substantial leads among women during victorious presidential campaigns.

Biden’s waning support is especially notable among Black and Hispanic women, as indicated by recent surveys from KFF, a health care research nonprofit. While issues like abortion and democracy remain vital to some women, inflation has emerged as a more pressing concern, benefiting Trump.

In states with abortion on the ballot, KFF polls suggest that the issue could mobilize women voters for the Democrats. Nonetheless, Biden’s overall support among women is stronger than his support among men, which has seen more significant declines, particularly among younger men and those without a college degree. Democratic strategists remain optimistic that core Democratic groups, including women and Black voters, will rally behind Biden as the election nears.

However, the decline in support from Black and Hispanic women is alarming. The KFF survey shows Biden leading among Black women by 58 percentage points, a sharp drop from the 86-point margin he enjoyed in the 2020 election, based on New York Times/Siena College polls. His lead among Hispanic women has also decreased to about 12 points, with an overall lead among women reduced to just 4 points.

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake believes that abortion will eventually galvanize women voters: “Once the campaign kicks into high gear, abortion will rally the women,” she said. “And as much as Trump wants to right-size himself, he can’t stop himself from bragging about how he overturned Roe v. Wade.”

In states like Arizona, where abortion restrictions are tight and the issue may be on the ballot, Democratic women show higher motivation to vote, unlike Republican women whose motivation remains unchanged. In Michigan, which upheld abortion rights in 2022, Biden is faring slightly worse among women compared to Arizona, as observed by Ashley Kirzinger, associate director for polling at KFF. “Michigan women are no longer worried about abortion access, and Biden does worse in that scenario,” she noted.

Voters focused on abortion tend to be younger and whiter than the broader female population, with a favorable view of Biden’s handling of abortion and a preference for his re-election. Yet, inflation concerns might dominate the election for a significant number of women voters.

“Women are not single-issue thinkers,” stated Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster and former campaign manager for Trump. “Therefore, they are not single-issue voters.” Conway criticized Biden’s focus on abortion, arguing that “Joe Biden and the Democrats seem to only talk to women from the waist down, since abortion is the only issue Joe Biden has an edge on in the polls.”

Inflation voters are disproportionately Black or Hispanic and more likely to be middle-aged. In Michigan, nearly 60% of Black women identify inflation as their primary voting issue, with a similar sentiment among Hispanic women in Arizona. For these voters, inflation eclipses all other concerns.

KFF surveys indicate that twice as many women believe they were better off financially under Trump. Young women, a critical Democratic demographic, are nearly three times more likely to say they were better financially under Trump than Biden, though 41% noted no difference in their financial situations between the two administrations. Half of Black women also reported no financial difference.

The trend of Democratic strength among women voters is relatively recent. In the 1980s, both Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush secured majorities of both male and female voters. However, in the last two decades, Democrats have rarely fallen below a double-digit lead with women. The last Democrat to conclude a campaign with a single-digit lead among women was John Kerry in 2004.